Superforecasting
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to
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Wharton psychologist Philip Tetlock and journalist Dan Gardner draw on a multi-year US intelligence-funded forecasting tournament to identify the habits of mind that let ordinary people predict world events better than experts.
Superforecasting is Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner's framework for systematically improving probabilistic predictions. The book draws on the IARPA Good Judgment Project, which Tetlock co-led, and identifies the practices of top-performing forecasters.
Yes. Superforecasting popularizes Philip Tetlock's peer-reviewed forecasting research. The book and the Good Judgment Project are widely cited in academic and policy circles.
Superforecasting was written by Philip E. Tetlock, published in 2015 by Crown.
Superforecasting is 338 pages in standard print editions, though page counts vary slightly between hardcover, paperback, and large-print formats.
At an average reading pace of about 250 words per minute, Superforecasting takes most readers 5 to 7 hours to finish.
Superforecasting is a standalone novel by Philip E. Tetlock, not part of a series.
Superforecasting is available in hardcover, paperback, ebook, and audiobook formats from Amazon, Bookshop.org, ThriftBooks, and most major bookstores.
