Thinking in Bets
"Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion tur
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Former World Series of Poker champion Annie Duke argues that most of life is closer to poker than chess, played with hidden cards and luck. Drawing on Pete Carroll's last play call in the 2015 Super Bowl and the cognitive science of belief, she walks through how to bet on what you know, and update.
Thinking in Bets was written by Annie Duke and published in 2018. Duke is a former professional poker player turned decision-making consultant. She has continued the topic in How to Decide (2020) and Quit (2022).
Thinking in Bets uses poker as an extended metaphor for decision-making under uncertainty, but applies the framework to business and personal decisions. The book is more about probabilistic thinking than gambling specifically.
Thinking in Bets is 276 pages in standard print editions, though page counts vary slightly between hardcover, paperback, and large-print formats.
At an average reading pace of about 250 words per minute, Thinking in Bets takes most readers 4 to 6 hours to finish.
Thinking in Bets is a standalone novel by Annie Duke, not part of a series.
Thinking in Bets is available in hardcover, paperback, ebook, and audiobook formats from Amazon, Bookshop.org, ThriftBooks, and most major bookstores.
